The duration of this Buddha Sasana

Textual Scholarship
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the Sutta (gotami sutta 8:51 AN)

Anguttara Nikaya Commentary
Dutiyapaṇṇāsakaṃ

  1. The Second Fifty

(6) 1. Gotamīvaggo

(6) 1. The Gotami Chapter

180 Mahato taḷākassa paṭikacceva āḷinti iminā pana etamatthaṃ dasseti – yathā mahato taḷākassa pāḷiyā abaddhāyapi kiñci udakaṃ tiṭṭhateva, paṭhamameva baddhāya pana yaṃ abaddhapaccayā na tiṭṭheyya, tampi tiṭṭheyya, evameva ye ime anuppanne vatthusmiṃ paṭikacceva anatikkamanatthāya garudhammā paññattā, tesu apaññattesu mātugāmassa pabbajitattā pañca vassasatāni saddhammo tiṭṭheyya. Paṭikacceva paññattattā pana aparānipi pañca vassasatāni ṭhassatīti evaṃ paṭhamaṃ vuttavassasahassameva ṭhassati. Vassasahassanti cetaṃ paṭisambhidāpabhedappattakhīṇāsavānaṃ vaseneva vuttaṃ, tato pana uttaripi sukkhavipassakakhīṇāsavavasena vassasahassaṃ, anāgāmivasena vassasahassaṃ, sakadāgāmivasena vassasahassaṃ, sotāpannavasena vassasahassanti evaṃ pañcavassasahassāni paṭivedhasaddhammo ṭhassati. Pariyattidhammopi tāniyeva. Na hi pariyattiyā asati paṭivedho atthi, nāpi pariyattiyā sati paṭivedho na hoti. Liṅgaṃ pana pariyattiyā antarahitāyapi ciraṃ pavattissatīti.

Translation by Bodhi of the Commentary
note 1747

“Mp (Ce): “By this he shows the following: ‘When a causeway is not built around a large reservoir, whatever water would have remained there if the causeway had first been built does not remain because there is no causeway. So too, these principles of respect have been prescribed in advance, before an incident has arisen, for the purpose of preventing transgression. If they had not been prescribed, then, because women have gone forth, the good Dhamma would have lasted five hundred years. But because they have been laid down in advance, it will continue another five hundred years and thus last for the thousand years originally stated.’ And this expression ‘a thousand years’ is said with reference to arahants who have attained the analytic knowledges (paṭisambhidāpabhedappattakhīṇāsavānaṃ vasen’eva vuttaṃ). Following this, for another thousand years, there appear dry-insight arahants; for another thousand years, non-returners; for another thousand years, once-returners; and for another thousand years, stream-enterers. Thus the good Dhamma of penetration (paṭivedhasaddhammo) will last five thousand years. The Dhamma of learning (pariyattidhammo) will also last this long. For without learning, there is no penetration, and as long as there is learning, there is penetration.” From the above, we can see that according to the commentary, the allowance for women to go forth will not shorten the life span of the Dhamma; this is because the Buddha laid down the eight principles of respect, which serve as the dyke or causeway.

Thus the Commentary says the Sasana will last 5000 years. The times of the great paṭisambhidā arhats has long passed. Even arhats who are only dry insight workers has gone.

However, the Commentary says there can still be anagami, once returners and sotapanna.

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the Tika:

Mātugāmassa pabbajitattāti idaṃ pañcavassasatato uddhaṃ aṭṭhatvā pañcasuyeva vassasatesu saddhammaṭṭhitiyā kāraṇanidassanaṃ. Paṭisambhidāpabhedappattakhīṇāsavavaseneva vuttanti ettha paṭisambhidāppattakhīṇāsavaggahaṇena jhānānipi gahitāneva honti. Na hi nijjhānakānaṃ sabbappakārasampatti ijjhatīti vadanti. Sukkhavipassakakhīṇāsavavasena vassasahassantiādinā ca yaṃ vuttaṃ, taṃ khandhakabhāṇakānaṃ matena vuttanti veditabbaṃ. Vinayaṭṭhakathāyampi (cūḷava. aṭṭha. 403) imināva nayena vuttaṃ.

The going forth of women, it is a cause, is an indication for the true Dhamma to last only five hundred years, not enduring for more than five hundred years. And when it is said, “Only arahants who have attained the discriminations (paṭisambhidā),” by the inclusion of arahants who have attained the discriminations, the jhānas are also included. For it is said that the complete success of those skilled in jhāna is not achieved. And that which is stated, "A thousand years…through dry insight practitioners who are arahants," should be understood as stated according to the opinion of the reciters of the Khandhakas. In the Vinaya commentary (Cūḷavagga Aṭṭhakathā, p. 403) it is also stated in this same way.

178

Dīghanikāyaṭṭhakathāyaṃ (dī. ni. aṭṭha. 3.161) pana ‘‘paṭisambhidāppattehi vassasahassaṃ aṭṭhāsi, chaḷabhiññehi vassasahassaṃ, tevijjehi vassasahassaṃ, sukkhavipassakehi vassasahassaṃ, pātimokkhena vassasahassaṃ aṭṭhāsī’’ti vuttaṃ. Idhāpi sāsanantaradhānakathāyaṃ (a. ni. aṭṭha. 1.1.130) ‘‘buddhānañhi parinibbānato vassasahassameva paṭisambhidā nibbattetuṃ sakkonti, tato paraṃ cha abhiññā, tato tāpi nibbattetuṃ asakkontā tisso vijjā nibbattenti, gacchante gacchante kāle tāpi nibbattetuṃ asakkontā sukkhavipassakā honti. Eteneva upāyena anāgāmino, sakadāgāmino, sotāpannā’’ti vuttaṃ.

In the commentary to the Dīgha Nikāya (Dī. Ni. Aṭṭha. 3.161), it is stated: "Those with the attainments of analytical knowledges (paṭisambhidā) endured for a thousand years, those with the six higher knowledges (chaḷabhiññā) for a thousand years, those with the threefold knowledge (tevijjā) for a thousand years, dry-insight practitioners (sukkhavipassakā) for a thousand years, and the Pātimokkha for a thousand years."Here, in the discussion on the disappearance of the Dispensation (A. Ni. Aṭṭha. 1.1.130), it is further said: “For after the final passing away of the Buddhas, beings are able to produce the analytical knowledges (paṭisambhidā) for only a thousand years. After that, they can produce the six higher knowledges (cha abhiññā); when they are no longer able to produce even those, they produce the threefold knowledge (tisso vijjā). As time passes further and they are no longer able to produce even these, they become dry-insight practitioners (sukkhavipassakā). In this way come non-returners (anāgāmino), once-returners (sakadāgāmino), and stream-enterers (sotāpannā).”

179

Saṃyuttanikāyaṭṭhakathāyaṃ (saṃ. ni. aṭṭha. 2.2.156) pana ‘‘paṭhamabodhiyañhi bhikkhū paṭisambhidāppattā ahesuṃ. Atha kāle gacchante paṭisambhidā pāpuṇituṃ na sakkhiṃsu, chaḷabhiññā ahesuṃ. Tato cha abhiññā pattuṃ asakkontā tisso vijjā pāpuṇiṃsu. Idāni kāle gacchante tisso vijjā pāpuṇituṃ asakkontā āsavakkhayamattaṃ pāpuṇissanti, tampi asakkontā anāgāmiphalaṃ, tampi asakkontā sakadāgāmiphalaṃ, tampi asakkontā sotāpattiphalaṃ, gacchante kāle sotāpattiphalampi pattuṃ na sakkhissantī’’ti vuttaṃ. Yasmā cetaṃ sabbaṃ aññamaññappaṭiviruddhaṃ, tasmā tesaṃ tesaṃ bhāṇakānaṃ matameva ācariyena tattha tattha dassitanti gahetabbaṃ. Aññathā hi ācariyasseva pubbāparavirodhappasaṅgo siyāti.

In the commentary to the Saṃyutta Nikāya (Saṃ. Ni. Aṭṭha. 2.2.156), it is stated: “Indeed, at the first enlightenment, monks attained the analytical knowledges (paṭisambhidā). Then, as time passed, they were unable to attain the analytical knowledges but attained the six higher knowledges (chaḷabhiññā). Then, unable to attain the six higher knowledges, they attained the threefold knowledge (tisso vijjā). Now, as time passes, unable to attain the threefold knowledge, they will attain only the destruction of the taints (āsavakkhaya); unable to attain even that, the fruit of non-returning (anāgāmiphala); unable to attain even that, the fruit of once-returning (sakadāgāmiphala); unable to attain even that, the fruit of stream-entry (sotāpattiphala). As time goes on, they will not even be able to attain the fruit of stream-entry.” Since all this is mutually contradictory, it should be understood that the teacher has presented only the respective opinions of various reciters (bhāṇakānaṃ) in the different places. Otherwise, there would be the implication of a contradiction in the teacher’s own earlier and later statements

I used the translation from https://tipitaka.paauksociety.org/ for this tika (and they used Ai).
Note that by the acariya (teacher) they seem to be referring to Buddhaghosa who complied the Atthakattha to the sutta.

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Is this true? I think the current time is now. Now there can be still be Arahants with insight.

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DN16 Parinibbāna Sutta says:

In whatever teaching and training [Dhamma Vinaya] the noble eightfold path is found, there is an ascetic found, a second ascetic, a third ascetic, and a fourth ascetic.In this teaching and training the noble eightfold path is found. Only here is there an ascetic, here a second ascetic, here a third ascetic, and here a fourth ascetic [the four types of noble persons]. Other sects are empty of ascetics.

Were these mendicants to practice well, the world would not be empty of perfected ones.

And it also says:

“So, mendicants, having carefully memorized those things I have taught you from my direct knowledge, you should cultivate, develop, and make much of them so that this spiritual practice may last for a long time. That would be for the welfare and happiness of the people, out of sympathy for the world, for the benefit, welfare, and happiness of gods and humans. And what are those things I have taught from my direct knowledge? They are: the four kinds of mindfulness meditation, the four right efforts, the four bases of psychic power, the five faculties, the five powers, the seven awakening factors, and the noble eightfold path.

These are the things I have taught from my direct knowledge. Having carefully memorized them, you should cultivate, develop, and make much of them so that this spiritual practice may last for a long time. That would be for the welfare and happiness of the people, out of sympathy for the world, for the benefit, welfare, and happiness of gods and humans.

Even if such thing is true, it seems more useful for me to work as if arahantship is possible in this world.

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Thank you for sharing this. This was what I was thinking of. As long as Bhikkhus, nuns, layman, and laywoman practice well, this world would not be empty of Arahants.

Yes, this is the right way.

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The prediction about the ending of the arahants roughly coincides with the extinction of the Bhikkhuni order . No more bhikkhuni implies there were no longer women arahants, as anyone who attains arahant must immediately join the order if they are not already in it. Thus this timing aligns with the prediction given in the Commentary.

What difference could it make with regard to work. This is still a Buddha sasana and there is no difference in the path at any time.
The way is always one of learning the teachings, seeing those truths here and now and finally penetrating at the level of vipassana.

[Silavant Sutta: Virtuous > >](Silavant Sutta: Virtuous > >)

“A virtuous monk, Kotthita my friend, should attend in an appropriate way to the five clinging-aggregates as inconstant, stressful, a disease, a cancer, an arrow, painful, an affliction, alien, a dissolution, an emptiness, not-self. Which five? Form as a clinging-aggregate, feeling… perception… fabrications… consciousness as a clinging-aggregate. A virtuous monk should attend in an appropriate way to these five clinging-aggregates as inconstant, stressful, a disease, a cancer, an arrow, painful, an affliction, alien, a dissolution, an emptiness, not-self. For it is possible that a virtuous monk, attending in an appropriate way to these five clinging-aggregates as inconstant… not-self, would realize the fruit of stream-entry.”

Then which things should an arahant attend to in an appropriate way?"
"An arahant should attend in an appropriate way to these five clinging-aggregates as inconstant, stressful, a disease, a cancer, an arrow, painful, an affliction, alien, a dissolution, an emptiness, not-self

When I read this in the Commentary I rejoice:

The Dhamma of learning (pariyattidhammo) will also last this long. For without learning, there is no penetration, and as long as there is learning, there is penetration. ”

It is a wonderful time now when the full teachings are still available.

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Nevertheless the Tika ( quoted above) lists different opinions among the groups of reciters ( bhāṇakā). For some reason Buddhaghosa preferred the conclusions of one set.

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I was thinking about those people who would be more motivated to practice and to ordain if Arahantship were still considered possible in this lifetime. But, as you said, any kind of attainment in this Sāsana would be a worthwhile one.

The lack of arahants would be a problem for many contemporary schools of Theravāda Buddhism that claim to have had arahant bhikkhus and bhikkhunis (or 10-precept ascetic women in those schools without bhikkhunis) in recent history. Either Arahantship is still possible these days (although very rare), or the claims of arahantship made by these schools are false. I won’t make any definite statements about particular cases, because slandering a true arahant creates heavy kamma.

Here is a summarized version of the commentaries above.

Maybe the sutta must be quoted for context here:

Ānanda, if females had not gained the going forth from the lay life to homelessness in the teaching and training proclaimed by the Realized One, the spiritual life would have lasted long. The true teaching would have remained for a thousand years. But since they have gained the going forth, now the spiritual life will not last long. The true teaching will remain only five hundred years.

That’s the only sutta I know that gives a precise reference to the duration of the Sāsana. Without the Commentaries, this 500–1000 year period would be open to much speculation.

According to the Commentary brought by @RobertK, the admission of women into the Sangha did not shorten the duration of the Sāsana, due to the measures taken by the Buddha—the previously foretold duration remained 1000 years.

Also according to the Commentary, the thousand-year period refers to the existence of a Sāsana with great paṭisambhidā arahants. When such arahants are lacking, it marks the decline (but not the extinction) of the Sāsana.

What would be the signs of the decline of the Sāsana? I can imagine the following, which happened during the 500–1000 years after the Buddha’s death:

  • Schools that profess false Dhamma and false Vinaya rising to predominance over the Theravāda schools.
  • The loss of the original bhikkhunī lineage.
  • The decline of Buddhism in India.
  • The arising of new religions in the world—a sign that the deities were losing faith in the Dhamma. Christianity arose approximately 500 years after the Buddha, and Islam around 1000 years after.

But these things are not the cause of the decline; they are consequences. The real cause is the presence of bad monks in the Sangha, something also predicted by the Buddha.

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from Nina van Gorkom, Dhamma in Cambodia (2000)

But Sawong: The Commentary to the Vinaya, the “Samantapåsådikå” explains about the degrees of paññá of Aryans in the different periods after the Buddha’s passing away. During the period of the first thousand years there were still arahats with the four “analytical knowledge’s”, patisambhidå [7] . In the following period of thousand years there were only arahats who are sukkha vipassaka, those who had not attained any stage of jhana, but who had developed only insight. In the third period of thousand years there are only people who have attained the state of non-returner, Anagami, in the fourth period of thousand years there are only Sakadagamis and in the fifth period of thousand years there are only sotápanna’s. However, in the Commentary to the Suttanta it is different. In the first period of thousand years there were arahats with the four analytical knowledge’s, in the second period of thousand years there were arahats with the six superpowers, abhiññås [8]. In the third period of thousand years there are arahats with the threefold knowledge, tevijja [9] . In the fourth period of thousand years there are arahats who are sukkha vipassaka and in the fifth period of thousand years there are non-returners. Why are these explanations different?
Sujin: In the “Samantapåsådikå”, in the Commentary to the Vinaya, to the Cullavagga, Ch X, on Nuns, the decline of Buddhism has been explained in the Buddha era of this Buddha, the Buddha Gotama. In the
“Sumangalavilåsiní”, in the Commentary to the “Dialogues of the Buddha”, no. 28, “The Faith that satisfied”, the declining of Buddhism in the Buddha era of a former Buddha, Kassapa Buddha, has been explained. We are living in the Buddha era of the Buddha Gotama. At this moment we are living in the third period of thousand years after the passing away of the Buddha Gotama. We should not think of persons, it is more important to think of the way leading to the realization of the four noble truths. If people do not follow the right way there will not even be an Aryan of the degree of the sotápanna.

But Sawong: Of the two ways of mental development, vipassana and samatha, which way leads more rapidly to nibbána?
Sujin: Samatha is the development of calm, freedom from akusala. When this way of kusala has become firmer one can attain access concentration and then attainment concentration, jhana of different degrees. If the jhana citta arises shortly before the dying-consciousness it conditions birth as a Brahma in a Brahma plane. However, if one does not develop the paññá that knows at this moment the characteristics of realities as they are, there is no way of attaining nibbána. Characteristics of Dhammas are truly appearing, and if one does not know them how could one come to realize nibbána?

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